Whether or not Mark Sanford is thinking of running for president, he’s got strong support back at home. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows him with a 20 point advantage over both of his possible Democrat opponents.
[ 08/05/2005 03:26 PM ]
Mark His Words
Buzz reader Kevin writes in with his wish list for a solid 2008 Republican presidential or vice-presidential candidate and came up with … South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford:
1. Some political experience, ideally a blend of time in D.C. and a term or two as governor of a state.
2. A commitment to social conservatism with solid pro-life credentials.
3. A proven track record of fiscal conservatism, tax cutting, spending restraint and programmatic reform.
4. A commitment to a robust military and fighting the WOT proactively and affectively.
5. A youngish, reasonably handsome, intelligent, articulate guy with a photogenic family.
[ 08/05/2005 03:21 PM ]
If Tuesday Gave You Heartburn, Find Some Extra-Strength Tums
The Columbus Dispatchfinds that there may be tough indicators for the Ohio GOP coming out of Tuesday night’s special election. But they aren’t in the form of resurgent Democrats:
The ongoing ethics-and-investments scandal in state government has gotten so big, even GOP officeholders not involved are in danger of losing office, said an unusually blunt U.S. Rep. Deborah Pryce in a meeting with The Dispatch editorial board.
"The political situation for Republicans both in Washington and especially Ohio is just dreadful," she said. "In my short political life I’ve never seen it so dire."
[ 08/05/2005 03:17 PM ]
Not All Critics Come From the Left
Buzz reader Eric, who is currently serving with the U.S. military writes in on those negative Iraq polls with an interesting question:
The thing I would like to know in these opinion polls about the President's handling of Iraq or the war generally, is how many of those who disapprove do so because they think he's not being sufficiently violent? The assumption is that those who disapprove all lean in a pacifist direction, but I don't know that that's the case. And it's interesting that very few of these polls care to ask.
It’s a fair question. In fact, it’s one that’s been asked by more than one Buzz reader via e-mail today. I think the same can be said when respondents are asked questions pertaining to President Bush’s handling of the economy or approval ratings for Congress. When it’s a simple “yes” or “no” phrased question, you can’t measure degrees of support or opposition that could skew the sample results.
[ 08/05/2005 02:47 PM ]
More AP/Ipos Opinion Push
Gerry Daly, of the great Daly Thoughts blog writes in to the Buzz with more interesting information on the AP/Ipos poll from this morning:
They did a split sample on the party self-identification question. Half were asked before any of the political questions. Half were asked after.
The results? The half asked after were more Democratic and less Republican. A 7-point difference in the gap between the parties.
If that is not just sampling error (random variance due to sampling), then it would suggest that the questions asked were not merely measuring opinion, but influencing opinion.
You can read his full post on the subject here.
[ 08/05/2005 01:04 PM ]
Pawlenty to Offer?
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty all-but took himself out of any 2008 White House consideration last month when he imposed a new sales tax on cigarettes that will push the cost up by more than a dollar per pack. As Free Enterprise Fund Vice President Peter Roff told The Buzz in a recent phone interview:
“Everyone that thought he could be president stopped thinking that when the tax issue came up. Anytime a Republican governor stands up for a net tax increase they knock themselves down the greasy ladder all of them are trying to climb to be president.”
So, Pawlenty will have to put aside his presidential ambitions for now, if not permanently. But what about re-election? When Pawlenty and Senator Norm Coleman were elected in 2002, they signaled a potential shift in the dynamic of Minnesota politics. Both may have been lifted by President Bush’s heightened popularity, but both have had a few years to establish their own identities. With regards to Pawlenty’s potential re-election, Roff said:
“I’m trying to be honest here but not critical. It doesn’t hurt his re-election effort. The Minnesota Democratic Party is in such disarray they don’t have anyone that can beat him.”
The question then becomes if Pawlenty wins re-election can he as governor help swing the state Republican in 2008? Coleman will be running for re-election and seems to have grown in popularity with Minnesota voters. With the right name at the top of the presidential ticket, Minnesota could potentially go Republican for the first time since 1972.
[ 08/05/2005 12:58 PM ]
Milbank Strikes Again?
The New Republic’s Ryan Lizza has an interesting story today illustrating how Republicans in Washington are serving as chief sources for reporters who cannot get information from a mostly locked down White House. It’s a well-researched piece and makes a good point. Unfortunately, Lizza relies on an already refuted false piece of reporting as his first piece of evidence.
Discussing President Bush’s Supreme Court nominee selection process, Lizza writes:
Elsewhere in Washington, other "sources close to the White House" were also fanning the Clement flames. Up on the Hill, Senator John Cornyn, another self-styled Bush adviser wired into the White House, e-mailed reporters an embargoed statement praising Clement as an inspired choice.
This piece of “reporting” came from Washington Post staff writer and former New Republic reporter Dana Milbank. However, as I reported on The Buzz last month, Milbank’s information was both misleading and used inappropriately. John Cornyn Communications Director Don Stewart had sent the email to reporters, but not Milbank. Rather than an endorsement of Edith Clement, the email was a list of talking points on Clement’s record, in case she was the president’s pick. Several reporters had asked Stewart for advance talking points.
In fact, after I reported Milbank’s error, the Washington Post issued a correction.
So, the question I have is, did Milbank pass this faulty information on to Lizza and his former colleagues at the New Republic?
UPDATE: Ryan Lizza writes in to The Buzz and asks:
"Umm, can you read? ... Can you explain the basis for your statement that what I wrote "relies on an already refuted false piece of reporting?"
As I tried to explain in my response to Lizza, he was not the target of criticism in my earlier post. I am simply asking did Milbank forward his story without noting his comments on Cornyn received a correction in the Washington Post? And if not, did Lizza know the Post and Don Stewart in particular take objection to elements reported in Milbank's story?
[ 08/05/2005 11:42 AM ]
Putting Things in Perspective
Back to that new AP/Ipsos poll on President Bush: Not surprisingly, the polling sample included 39% Republicans and 49% Democrats.
Before hitting the link to the poll sample, just know it’s a PDF file.
[ 08/05/2005 11:26 AM ]
And This is What the MSM Calls a "Conservative" Move
George Pataki makes it official and vetoes legislation that would have made access to the so-called “morning after pill” available without a prescription. The New York Post reports:
Calling himself a "consistent supporter of a woman's right to choose," Pataki in his veto message acknowledged that there is "considerable force to the proponents' argument that providing women with greater access to emergency contraceptive could prevent unintended pregnancies and reduce the number of abortions."
But he said he vetoed the measure because it would allow young girls access to the contraception without parental consent.
Pataki has been accused by many Democrats and women's groups of selling out the interests of women in trying to court conservatives for a 2008 presidential run.
[ 08/05/2005 10:41 AM ]
Clinton Will Not Promise to Serve Full Term
Earlier this week, I told Buzz readers about a Quinnipiac poll that tested Hillary Clinton, as well as other potential 2008 candidates. In that poll, over 60 percent of New Yorkers said that if Clinton is re-elected to the Senate they want her to promise to serve the full-term. Coming late to the game, the Washington Post writes:
A clear majority of her constituents want Clinton to pledge to serve a full six-year term. Sixty percent -- including 59 percent of Democrats -- said they want her to promise to serve a complete term. Such a promise would not be compatible with what many people in her camp expect will be a race for the presidency in 2008.
Will she make that commitment? "Senator Clinton has repeatedly said that her sole focus is on serving the people of New York and the 2006 race," her spokesman, Howard Wolfson, said in a statement.
In other words, no. She’s running.
[ 08/05/2005 10:35 AM ]
Best of Friends
The New York Daily NewsreportsHillary Clinton and former House Republican Susan Molinari “gushed over one another” at a Staten Island economic conference:
Molinari hailed Clinton as a courageous groundbreaker. "Today there are 70 women in the House of Representatives and instead of two United States senators [in 1990] we have 14 female United States senators and there's a rumor that there's going to be one that will run for President," said Molinari, the daughter of ex-Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari.
[ 08/05/2005 10:22 AM ]
Who Will Get the Center Square?
The Des Moines Registercompares and contrasts the careers of Senator Evan Bayh and Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack. Both are considered potential 2008 White House candidates and could face off in Vilsack’s home state should they both run. Bayh just completed his first visit to Iowa as an openly potential candidate. Both Bayh and Vilsack are twice-elected governors with centrist backgrounds, but they also have many differences:
Bayh is a political legacy, the son of former U.S. Sen. Birch Bayh. Vilsack, whose adopted family in Pittsburgh was not politically prominent, started as mayor of Mount Pleasant.
And although Bayh and Vilsack echo the moderates' mantra that Democrats have let Republicans claim supremacy on security issues, Bayh has more experience than Vilsack on military, terrorism and foreign policy issues.
"Having that experience in a dangerous time for our country is a good background to have," Bayh, a member of the Senate intelligence and armed services committees, told The Des Moines Register on Thursday. "I spend half of my time now on things like North Korea, Iran, weapons of mass destruction and al-Qaida, that type of thing."
[ 08/05/2005 10:15 AM ]
It's Not You, It's Me
Ohio GOP Chair Bob Bennett spoke to ABC News about Tuesday night’s election results and said, "It has everything to do with Ohio and nothing to do with the President or Iraq.”
[ 08/05/2005 09:59 AM ]
You've Got Our Attention
At the Republican National Committee’s summer meeting, the close result in Ohio’s Tuesday special election between Paul Hackett and Jean Schmidt was a hot topic of discussion. However, most in attendance felt it was an exception and not a sign of bad things to come for House Republicans in 2006.
[ 08/05/2005 09:56 AM ]
A Second Opinion
As I’ve mentioned on The Buzz more than once, if you want more reliable poll numbers, check out Rasmussen Reports. They have a new poll out showing President Bush’s job approval rating at 48 percent, with 50 percent disapproving. President Bush gets 51 percent approval from men and 45 percent approval from women.
[ 08/05/2005 09:44 AM ]
Playing the Numbers
Buzz reader Matthew writes in on USA Today’s new Iraq poll numbers:
For USA Today to run a poll right after 24 Marines die and on top of that to suggest these deaths can be a campaign issue for the mid terms show the ignorance the MSM have of war fare. It is also disgusting. It is polls such as these that give credence to the myth that we are paper tigers. Casualties are ugly but it is the reality of war. But to issue these editorials in the guise of push polls (by AP/Ipsos where Bush has been @ 42%-45 for ever and once had Kerry leading Bush by 10, so you know how accurate they are) is misleading and fooling nobody.
[ 08/05/2005 09:37 AM ]
The Dance
Orlando Sentinel columnist Kathleen Parkerwrites, “Clinton is whatever you want her to be.”
Some see Hillary Clinton as a reformed moderate; others claim she always was, while many still consider her the anti-military liberal who wants to “create a nanny state.” And as Parker writes:
That's both the beauty and the problem of Hillary Clinton. She's whatever she needs to be to advance the only agenda to which she is loyal: the power of Hillary Clinton.
In particular, Parker points out Clinton’s hypocrisy on immigration. She has said in interviews that she is against illegal immigration. However, she “all but launched into a hat dance” when speaking to the group La Raza:
If you're serious about national security, then you're serious about illegal immigration. And if you're serious about illegal immigration, then you don't reward illegal immigrants with expensive promises while failing to make good on pledges to keep illegal aliens out. And if Hillary Clinton is serious about being president, she'd better make up her mind.
[ 08/05/2005 09:23 AM ]
From Bad to Worse
USA Todaypoints to their new poll numbers claiming the public’s support for President Bush’s handling of Iraq has hit an all-time low. Aside from the numbers themselves, USAT writes:
Continuing worries about Iraq may do more than drag down Bush's standing with the public. They could become a major issue in the 2006 midterm congressional races, and if the war is still going in 2008, they could be a factor in the presidential race.
However, what they do not show in their poll is the number of Americans who support staying in Iraq until the job is finished. Unlike Iraq approval numbers, which fluctuate with regularity, the basic support for operations in Iraq has remained relatively stagnant regardless of how good or bad the news is on any given day. No doubt the U.S. military is facing a huge challenge right now in Iraq and the White House is facing a significant political issue at home. But it's misleading to portray the public’s support for the mission itself as faltering.
[ 08/05/2005 09:00 AM ]
August 04, 2005
Anger Management
Buzz reader Mark writes in on my article today examining the political fallout of Tuesday’s special election in Ohio:
And once again Markos is claiming victory after ANOTHER of his favorite candidates bites the dust. It’s just like his heavily promoted (on his site anyway) Kos 12 who all lost in November along with John Kerry …
Let him and the rest of the fringe-left celebrate loses as victories. With Howard Dean, Kos, and Michael Moore as the putative or actual leaders/faces of the DNC I have little fear of them winning much of anything. They are bitter, angry unlikable people who will end up driving more people away from the DNC than they will lure into it.
Or as Kos said at today’s NDN event when describing his initial entry into the blogging world, “This administration had started a war in Afghanistan and was about to start another one… It was just a way for me personally to deal with the anger I was feeling.”
And I’m not even going to touch the “starting a war” part.
[ 08/04/2005 03:36 PM ]
Tough Cell
George Allen appeared on CNN’s “Inside Politics” yesterday. He discussed issues ranging from John Roberts to stem cells, to his own presidential ambitions. Allen gave the traditional non-answer when asked about 2008, but was more detailed on the question of expanded funding for embryonic stem cell research:
What I'm looking to do is find a way that we can advance stem cell research in a way that it actually helps people. And of course adult stem cell research right now is finding cures and helping people. So far as the embryonic stem cell research, there are three filters that I'm using. One is the scientific advancement filter. The other is: What is appropriate for federal funding? The third is the ethical or the ethics controversy. I think with some of the advancements in technology and science, there are ways of deriving stem cells, embryonic-type stem cells, that have all that flexibility and pluripotentiality without destroying an embryo. If we can do that, that's good for science. It's logical for funding. It also avoids the ethical controversy.
And the fact of the matter is that the question is whether or not there should be federal funding. And it's not as if the federal government is the only one who can fund this. The state of California has put in $3 billion for such research, as have other states and the private sector. So maybe if we can find and craft a measure which gets embryonic stem cells without destroying an embryo, that is the plus-plus approach for advancements in the research in stem cells to help from everything from juvenile diabetes to Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.
Allen’s response sounds like the right one for someone who is a natural conservative but isn’t necessarily passionate about the stem cell issue. This apparently third approach, let the states handle it, fits in with Allen’s Jeffersonian approach to politics while allowing him to straddle the issue somewhat politically.
[ 08/04/2005 02:59 PM ]
The Hackett Racket
Kos could not agree more with Trippi’s assertion that “the pivotal moment was Paul Hackett’s campaign” in terms of translating liberal outrage into measurable electoral results.
However, despite the fundraising and organizing prowess displayed by websites such as Daily Kos and MyDD, Kos had to acknowledge, “We haven’t had a lot of luck with that message in the Washington community.”
A strong theme emphasized by both Kos and Trippi was their effort to emulate the past success of the GOP in organizing the conservative grassroots. Both showed a level of respect for Republican accomplishments in this arena that reminded me very much of Howard Dean. In other words, they may not like our brand of politics, but they admire the manufacturing process.
As Kos said:
“This was a test bed. We were very clear with our audience that we were not saying we are going to win … this is a long-term project. Republicans spent 30 years building their infrastructure.”
When it comes to Paul Hackett’s future electoral prospects, Kos added, “We hope he runs for statewide office. Ohio 2 doesn’t deserve him. We had a candidate who could be himself. He was not beholden to the party.”
Kos estimated liberal blogs raised approximately $400,000 for Hackett’s campaign.
[ 08/04/2005 02:34 PM ]
Muchas Gracias
Many thanks to both Wonkette and Fishbowl DC who picked up on my Mike Allen news item.
[ 08/04/2005 02:17 PM ]
Sea Change, Washed Up, It's all Semantics
Just got back from the Joe Trippi and Markos Moulitsas headlined discussion “Reflections of a Blogger.”
First impressions: Even though Markos Moulitsas ended the talk by joking, “Who’s more long-winded, me or Joe?” they both were a step above the normal Washington discussion circuit.
Joe Trippi began his speech with a phrase many Democrats can relate to, “I want to go back in time to the late 1990’s.” He was actually leading into the story of how he discovered blogs, but I couldn’t help but be amused at the electoral significance.
Trippi described the Ohio special election between Jean Schmidt and Paul Hackett as a “sea change moment” in Democrat politics. That was certainly the theme of the discussion both from Trippi and Kos.
[ 08/04/2005 02:12 PM ]
Behind Enemy Lines
I’ll be away from my computer for a bit. Heading downtown to checkout the Daily Kos/ Joe Trippi moderated New Democrat Network’s “Reflections of a Blogger.”
I’ll return with more reporting and posts at around 2pm. Please stay tuned.
[ 08/04/2005 11:38 AM ]
Buzz hears...Rumours swirling about Mike Allen
White House reporters are buzzing that widely-respected Washington Post reporter Mike Allen is leaving his current job to become a White House correspondent for Time magazine.
I placed a phone call and email to Allen, who was kind enough to write back, saying: "Thank you for asking. I love The Washington Post and have not made a decision about any change."
If Allen were to make a move to Time, he would add to Matt Cooper’s solid reporting and help fill the void created by recent Slate defector John Dickerson.
But until the news is confirmed either way, file this one under "gossip."
[ 08/04/2005 11:27 AM ]
Rock Me Like a Hurricane
The Democrat Party’s website is callingPaul Hackett’s loss in Ohio “The first wind in a hurricane.”
Well, if they are predicting a Republican sweep in the 2006 elections, I’m with them all the way. Hat tip to IQVPart.
[ 08/04/2005 10:58 AM ]
Like Putting Salt on Your Pizza
Indianapolis MonthlywritesEven Bayh may have the right mix of ingredients to create a viable presidential candidate for Democrats in 2008:
What Bayh's supporters see in their man is a new kind of Democrat who understands the needs and concerns of folks living in the country's vast middle because he shares them. The senator, who turns 50 this year, his wife, Susan, and their 9-year-old twins, Beau and Nick, are a picture-perfect foursome to offer up to voters in the outer ’burbs.
Though the Monthly fails to explain why someone so comfortable in his own Midwestern skin needs to hire a Beverly Hills speech consultant.
[ 08/04/2005 10:54 AM ]
Going From Sizzle to Fizzle
Michael Barone writes of the OH-02 fallout on his U.S. News blog and finds Schmidt’s low turnout:
[S]hould give pause to Republicans and raise the question as to whether the Republican base—much larger in this district than the Democratic base—will turn out in record numbers in November 2006 as it did in November 2004 ... But if I were Karl Rove or Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman, I would be thinking hard about how to motivate the Republican base.
As I've previously said, I believe the support for Ken Blackwell from both social and fiscal conservatives should help balance out the fallout from Governor Taft and George Voinovich.
[ 08/04/2005 10:37 AM ]
Make Them Go Away
The Union-Leader also reports Bill Frist has made two negative ads targeting him “go away.”
A group backing expanded stem cell research has cancelled a planned TV ad they planned to run against Frist. And the pro-business Americans for Job Security stopped running radio ads this week critical of Frist after he promised to a September vote on repealing the death tax.
No doubt the death tax move is a plus for Frist. But he’ll still have to face conservative New Hampshire voters upset with his move on stem cells.
[ 08/04/2005 10:16 AM ]
Come for the Schmooze, Stay for the Halloween Candy
Democratic Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh apparently enjoyed New Hampshire so much when he visited last month that he plans to return in the fall.
We've confirmed that Bayh, a possible 2008 Presidential contender, will be the featured speaker at the state Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson fund-raiser on Oct. 29 at the Center of New Hampshire Radisson Hotel. It's an important fund-raiser for state Dems, second only to the 100 Club event held each winter.
[ 08/04/2005 10:11 AM ]
'08 is Enough
Despite a Gallup poll this week showing he could win, Rudy Giuliani has “no intention” of running for governor of New York, according to a Giuliani aide.
[ 08/04/2005 10:03 AM ]
Left Hook
Last night’s dinner party for liberal bomb-thrower Charlie Rangel’s 75th birthday included appearances by Hillary Clinton, Wesley Clark and gubernatorial “shoo-in” General Eliot Spitzer. But Clinton stole the show, making a “risqué” joke about Rangel:
The junior senator wasn't afraid to get a bit risqué, crediting Rangel with encouraging her to run for Senate by joking, "I learned that this is a man you don't say no to, like countless women before me — and countless men as well." Everyone blushed, including Rangel, a Korean War vet and a Purple Heart recipient.
Clinton received at least one “joke” in her favor as well:
"She can beat Bush. She can beat Pataki. She can beat Giuliani. She can even beat Lennox Lewis," joked State Sen. David Paterson.
[ 08/04/2005 09:55 AM ]
It's a War
The New York Timesreports President Bush is perfectly content with calling the war on terror by its true name:
President Bush publicly overruled some of his top advisers on Wednesday in a debate about what to call the conflict with Islamic extremists, saying, "Make no mistake about it, we are at war."
In a speech here, Mr. Bush used the phrase "war on terror" no less than five times. Not once did he refer to the "global struggle against violent extremism," the wording consciously adopted by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other officials in recent weeks after internal deliberations about the best way to communicate how the United States views the challenge it is facing.
[ 08/04/2005 09:32 AM ]
Keeping Pace
Buzz reader William writes in on the history of elections in Ohio’s 2nd district:
Although the Hon. Rob Portman was usually RE-elected with 70 - 80 % of the vote, when he was first elected -- in a race without an incumbent -- his vote was in the low 50’s. The same was true of his predecessor, Willis Gradison.
[ 08/04/2005 09:25 AM ]
Republicans Win, MoveOn
Over on the main site today, you can read my take on what Tuesday’s special election in Ohio between Jean Schmidt and Paul Hackett means for both parties in 2006. Even if you’ve been following my Ohio reporting closely on The Buzz this week, there’s still some new information here. Please take a look when you have a chance.
[ 08/04/2005 09:22 AM ]
Loco-Motive
The Los Angeles Times’ Ron Brownsteinthinks the most immediate impact of Tuesday night’s special election in Ohio may be in how Democrats formulate their 2006 strategy:
The close result is likely to increase pressure on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to recruit and finance serious challengers in more Republican-leaning districts next year — already a favorite cause of many liberal Internet activists.
Hackett's strong showing may also encourage sharper criticism of the Iraq war, said one senior Democratic congressional aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing party strategy.
[ 08/04/2005 09:06 AM ]
Don't Believe Your Own Hype
Paul Hackett added his voice to the chorus of Democrats claiming his Tuesday night election loss in Ohio is a barometer for improved Democrat electoral prospects in 2006. In an email to supporters through the Democracy for America website founded by Howard Dean, Hackett wrote:
We have the power to win back Congress. Yesterday proved it. Yesterday, one of the reddest regions in America turned a whole lot bluer.
[ 08/04/2005 08:54 AM ]
Revised Edition
Columnist George Will says conservative critics of Bill Frist have it wrong when they go after him for his “slightly revised” position on stem cell research:
The minor disagreement between Bush and Frist refutes the crackpot realism of those who cannot fathom the fact that people in public life often do what they do because they think it is right. Both Bush and Frist have thought seriously about this subject and come to mildly divergent conclusions. But neither conclusion crosses the scarlet line of supporting the creation of embryos to be mere sources of cells. And neither conclusion is the result of the sort of slapdash thinking that exaggerates the differences between them and explains those differences in terms of banal political calculations.
[ 08/04/2005 08:38 AM ]
Newt Says Don't Forget Ohio
Former House Speaker and possible 2008 candidate Newt Gingrichsays Tuesday’s special election results in Ohio should not be ignored by Republicans looking forward to 2006:
It should serve as a wake-up call to Republicans, and I certainly take it very seriously in analyzing how the public mood evidences itself. Who is willing to show up and vote is different than who answers a public opinion poll. Clearly, there's a pretty strong signal for Republicans thinking about 2006 that they need to do some very serious planning and not just assume that everything is going to be automatically okay.
[ 08/04/2005 08:29 AM ]
Empty Threats
Dallas Morning News columnist Carl Leubsdorfsays the far left outrage over Hillary Clinton’s involvement with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council is not likely to have a significant impact on her 2008 prospects:
Though the former first lady would have substantial liberal backing if she runs, her support of the Iraq war may attract an opponent on her left, possibly Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin or unsuccessful 2004 nominee John Kerry.
But just as Iowa Republicans have rarely favored the more conservative candidate, so have its Democrats seldom picked the most liberal hopeful. In 2004, despite substantial anti-war sentiment, the top anti-war candidate, former Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont, lost to Mr. Kerry.
[ 08/04/2005 08:23 AM ]
August 03, 2005
Welcome to the Club, Time to Pay Your Dues
During the June Republican primary in Ohio’s 2nd District, the Club for Growth released a radio ad critical of House member-elect Jean Schmidt for supporting tax increases. I wanted to find out what they thought about last night’s results. Club for Growth President Pat Toomey tells The Buzz via-email today:
This is a conservative district so I’m disappointed the race was as close as it was. I hope Jean will represent the district in the same conservative, pro-growth fashion that Rob Portman did. We will see.
[ 08/03/2005 05:51 PM ]
MSNBC
I’ll be on MSNBC’s “Connected” today at 5pm discussing Ohio and Iraq.
UPDATE: The Political Teen blog passes along a link to my video from MSNBC earlier today.
[ 08/03/2005 04:21 PM ]
Hackett Racket
The Media Research Center takes a look at how the network news anchors tried to spin the Paul Hackett story:
Democrat Paul Hackett lost a special election on Tuesday to fill a U.S. House seat representing Southwestern Ohio, but not before the broadcast networks and CNN all championed the candidacy of the Bush-bashing Marine who served in Iraq. On ABC on Sunday, reporter Geoff Morrell recited how Hackett denounced Bush as a "chicken hawk" and "the biggest threat to America," but instead of describing that as mudslinging, Morrell called it "candor," relaying: "If elected, Hackett says he'll use that same candor to educate Congress about what's really going on in Iraq." On Saturday, CBS's Drew Levinson touted Hackett as "a tough talker" who "goes as far as saying President Bush is a greater threat to U.S. security than Osama bin Laden." Tuesday on CNN, Bruce Morton noted how Hackett's attacks on Bush have "angered some Republicans," but highlighted how one "Vietnam vet, who voted for Bush, is having second thoughts." NBC's Carl Quintanilla plugged Hackett as what "some call a next generation Democrat" and asserted that "analysts like Stu Rothenberg say there may be fallout even if Hackett finishes a close second."
[ 08/03/2005 03:53 PM ]
About Schmidt
Take a look at the ad the Club for Growth ran against Jean Schmidt during her primary. Needless to say, it shows why the enthusiasm from GOP supporters was less than spectacular last night.
And liberals are going nuts today pointing out that former House Republican Rob Portman won this district overwhelming the last several cycles. Well, when you read about Portman’s “opposition” from 1998-2004 it helps put his lopsided victories in perspective.
Democrat Charles Sanders ran against Portman in four consecutive cycles. The fact that Portman kept increasing his margin of victory only makes sense.
[ 08/03/2005 01:37 PM ]
Primary Motivation
Buzz reader Rich Leonardi writes in with some thoughts from on the ground in Ohio:
What Republicans should take from this squeaker is that when you nominate a nondescript state legislator who voted for the largest tax increase in Ohio history, a head of a pro-life organization who starts calling Roe vs. Wade a "settled issue" before she even gets to Washington, and a weak campaigner who thinks that shadowing Bush the way she shadowed Taft in Columbus is the path to victory, the party faithful are going to stay home.
One more thing. The conservative vote was split in the 11-way Republican primary for Schmidt's seat. I live around the corner from Tom Brinkman, one of the defeated primary conservatives, and if anyone was going to be called to "sit this one out" it would have been me. (During the '04 Presidential election, I was called 'round the clock.) No one called me. Nor do I know anyone else who was called. They didn't need to; we all recognized without official prompting that Schmidt was a poor substitute for the man she now replaces. Godspeed to her primary challengers in '06.
Running Against Bush - Not Exactly a Winning Strategy
A well-placed GOP source e-mails The Buzz to expalin that Democrats not only lost last night’s special election in Ohio, but their strategy against Republicans nationally is not bearing fruit:
Democrats Failed in OH-02 Despite Enormous Help – Even with an extraordinary amount of national media attention showered on Hackett, a huge last-minute influx of money from Democrat-affiliated special interests and other liberal online groups, and aggressive help from online bloggers, Democrats failed in OH-02. Despite all the national attention and online support, national Democrats failed to support Hackett.
The President Remains Popular Among Republicans – The OH-02 special demonstrated that the President remains immensely popular among Republican base voters, and that Democrat attempts to make congressional elections a referendum on the President’s policies in districts where Republicans outnumber Democrats will not work.
[ 08/03/2005 12:21 PM ]
Was Schmidt a Drag On the Ticket?
As multiple sources are telling me today, despite all the national attention, last night was ultimately a local race. Paul Hackett ran a strong second as a Democrat in name only. He’s a member of the NRA, an Iraqi war veteran and attacked Jean Schmidt over her ties to unpopular Governor Bob Taft and tax increases.
For her part, Schmidt did not do much to woo conservative voters. She gave speeches on ethanol to suburban voters and even lost the support of the Club for Growth. There has also been much discussion online about her former primary opponents working to suppress voter turnout so that they could challenge a victorious Hackett in 2006.
But despite all this, Schmidt still won. In fact, she scored better than 7 of Ohio’s 17 other House members in their first run for office. That puts her right in the middle of the pack, with very positive trends heading into 2006.
[ 08/03/2005 12:12 PM ]
Getting Past the Hype
Just spoke with National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ed Patru. I asked Patru for the NRCC’s reaction to last night’s race in Ohio between Jean Schmidt and Paul Hackett.
“The Republican won. Despite the national media attention and Democrat focus on turnout, it was a 29 percent turnout. The history of special elections tend to be closer than regular year contests.”
Patru pointed out that recently special elections in Louisiana’s 1st
District, Pennsylvania’s 9th District, Virginia’s 4th District, Oklahoma’s 1st District, and Texas’ 19th District have ended in similar results: Both parties battle to a near draw but the following election sees the balance fall back towards the side of Republicans.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rahm Emanuel have been bullish on last night’s results. However, Patru points out neither took a leading role in the race.
“If Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel think last night’s race was a referendum on President Bush’s Iraq policy, ask them why neither contributed money to Paul Hackett. Democrats activists wasted money on another race they don’t have. With Democrats holding about a third of the cash Republicans have for congressional races, they cannot afford to keep investing heavily in races like this while having to abandon other candidates.”
[ 08/03/2005 12:02 PM ]
Hack-ett Job
Buzz reader Christopher writes in with an interesting take on last night’s Ohio results:
I'm sure I'm not the first to observe this but had Hackett not called the president an SOB and said the president was more dangerous than Osama he would have won. A clearer message could not be sent to the Dems. The election last night really demonstrated how the Bush-bashing, "Gitmo guards are nazis", blame America first wing of the Democratic party is dragging them down.
[ 08/03/2005 10:34 AM ]
One Flew Over the Kos-Kos Nest
Daily Kos moderator Markos Moulitsas writes of last night’s Ohio results:
OH-02 saw the resurgance of the Democratic Party, the GOP had to spend $500K they hadn't otherwise planned on spending, and a Democratic star is born (next stop for Hackett -- statewide elected office). So much for "burying" Hackett...
The post-mortems will come in the coming days, but for now, I'm happy with what everyone accomplished in Ohio. It's a new day for the Democratic Party, one in which no Republican district is safe.
Sometimes his posts are just better left ignored. I can’t speak for Buzz readers, but I’ll take a close victory over a loss without reservations. Next year will see strong Republican candidates in Ohio like Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. There can be little doubt Republicans will have a much greater focus on this state both in terms of dollars and organizing. Paul Hackett is probably better off enjoying his strong second place showing than pushing for a re-match. Though there’s no denying if I were in Hackett’s shoes, the temptation for a second round would be strong.
[ 08/03/2005 10:30 AM ]
All for Nothing
Liberals ranging from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi down to your average Daily Kos blogger are celebrating Ohio Democrat Paul Hackett’s strong showing last night against Republican Jean Schmidt.
The point many on the left seem to be dwelling on this morning is the “great” turnout Hackett received.
However, Buzz reader Melissa writes in with some interesting data from the last two congressional cycles:
Comparing 2002 to 2005, the Republicans stayed home, the Democrats, if reports are true, invested millions to get 6,783 more votes. Relative to 2004, they lost 35,197 or 40% of the voters they had only 9 months ago. The backslapping that is occurring is far from reality.
[ 08/03/2005 10:17 AM ]
Unfaithful
The Boston Globe must be beside itself this morning. Not content to simply knock Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith on a near daily basis, they now criticize Israeli politics as well in the same piece.
Romney is making his first international trip as governor and it’s to Israel. The Globe devotes several interviews to critics, both of Romney and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, who is sponsoring the trip.
[ 08/03/2005 10:03 AM ]
On His Own
The Hill’s Patrick O’ConnerreportsBill Frist failed to tip off House Speaker Dennis Hastert and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay before his stem cell announcement last Friday.
[ 08/03/2005 09:57 AM ]
Money for Nothing
The Sioux City Journalreports labor unions played a large role in bolstering Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack’s Heartland PAC. In only five weeks, the PAC has raised $635,000.
The Service Employees International Union and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees both gave $100,000 to Vilsack’s PAC.
[ 08/03/2005 09:51 AM ]
Howdy, Neighbor
Buzz reader Steve writes in from Iowa with some observations on Evan Bayh’s visit this week:
The local news coverage of him was pretty milk toast, and as one would expect carried the obligatory codicil reminding viewers that this is, after all, Tom Vilsack’s home state. If he chooses to run - well, you can imagine the rest.
The occasion for his speech was lost in the shuffle, but what I found interesting was that his local Democratic host was Leonard Boswell. Boswell is a fellow who, through redistricting, has a much less Democratic constituency than when first elected. He is, I think, considered a relatively weak candidate and could be taken by a strong Republican, despite his military background, a much-prized entry on a Democratic resume.
There were plenty of questions this scene raised in my mind. Is this the best Bayh can do? Usually Tom Harkin likes to get in front of the camera for these things, but he is shrewd enough to avoid hitching his wagon to a falling star. Does that mean the political algorithm has already been computed, and Bayh is out? Does it really signal a serious run by Vilsack?
[ 08/03/2005 09:35 AM ]
Not Too Curious About George
Finally, Quinnipiac samples George Pataki’s legacy and chances to impact the 2008 field. Pataki seems to get more New Yorkers interested in the Republican ticket, but not enough to measure any serious impact:
5 percent of New York State voters say they would "definitely" vote for Pataki for President, with 23 percent who say they "probably" would vote for Pataki.
If Pataki is the Republican vice presidential candidate in 2008, 17 percent of New Yorkers say they are more likely to vote for the GOP ticket, with 23 percent who are less likely and 55 percent who say it won't make a difference.
[ 08/03/2005 09:28 AM ]
Stay a While
In the same Quinnipiac poll, New Yorkers have some strong views on Hillary Clinton and her possible political future:
Looking at Clinton's presidential prospects, 56 percent of New York State voters say she will run for President in 2008, and 24 percent say they "definitely" will vote for her, with 27 percent who say they "probably" will vote for her.
But voters say 60 - 30 percent that Clinton should pledge to serve the full six-year term if she runs for reelection to the Senate in 2006, blocking a 2008 presidential bid.
[ 08/03/2005 09:26 AM ]
Good Day for Rudy in the Polls
A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that Rudy Giuliani would top Eliot Spitzer in a hypothetical gubernatorial race. Giuliani comes out over Spitzer 49 to 42 percent and the only Republican to top Spitzer in the poll.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist spoke by video to the first "Justice Sunday" evangelical rally in April, but he wasn't invited to address "Justice Sunday II," even though it's in his home state of Tennessee.
Frist has “angered” organizers of the event with his switch in support of expanded embryonic stem cell research. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay has been invited to speak at the August 14th event.
[ 08/03/2005 09:19 AM ]
Maybe He Just Loves "Wedding Crashers"
The National Journal’s Hotline is reporting this morning that when Joe Biden was asked by Jon Stewart last night if he’d run with John McCain he answered, “The answer is yes ... I would ask him to do that.”
[ 08/03/2005 09:13 AM ]
Indecent Proposal
Joe Biden stopped by Comedy Central’s “Daily Show” last night. There wasn’t a lot of news from this. However, host Jon Stewart did ask Biden about the possibility of running against a fellow senator such as John McCain in 2008.
I don’t have the exact quote in front of me, but Biden made reference to running WITH McCain, saying, “John is a close personal friend. If I run with him or against him…”
Was it a mere slip of the tongue or a blatant attempt by Biden to cash in on McCain’s bipartisan support?
[ 08/03/2005 09:07 AM ]
How Many Times Will McCain's Staff Read This Poll Today?
Finally, Gallup tested John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in possible 2008 match-ups.
Both McCain and Giuliani trump Clinton 50 to 45 percent in a hypothetical race.
And both McCain and Giuliani come out on top over Kerry 54 to 41 percent.
At least in the short run this does seem to give credence to Clinton’s moderate facelift. It has added weight when you consider how Kerry has shifted to leftist antagonistic mode since last November. I still think McCain comes out the real winner here, even if Giuliani has higher personal favorability ratings. With the exception of the Bernard Kerik debacle, Giuliani has stayed mostly out of the spotlight, allowing fond nostalgic memories to grow in the public mind. McCain has been very much an active politician. To maintain high approval ratings and come out over Clinton in hypothetical match-ups shows real measurable political strength.
[ 08/03/2005 08:51 AM ]
Rudy Rallies
Gallup also tested a few 2008 Republicans in their polling sample. John McCain comes out very strong with a 51 to 22 percent approval rating. Surprisingly, 16 percent of respondents claim to not have heard of McCain.
However, Rudy Giuliani beats the field with a 64 to 19 percent approval rating and only 9 percent of respondents choosing “don’t know.”
There can be no doubt these numbers will fluctuate and settle closer to the 50 percent range once the 2008 campaign is in full swing. However, if you’re Giuliani looking across the podium at John Kerry, 64 percent approval is a much better starting point than 42.
[ 08/03/2005 08:42 AM ]
The More You Get to Know Him
Gallup has a new poll out testing the personal favorability ratings of possible 2008 candidates. The results begin with John Kerry, who comes out with 42 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. That is a solid 10-point drop from his 52 percent approval rating in Gallup’s polling last October.
Hillary Clinton has a 53 to 43 percent approval rating, consistent with her numbers over the last two years.
[ 08/03/2005 08:37 AM ]
August 02, 2005
Schmidt Wins
The local affiliate Fox 19 has just called the race for Jean Schmidt over Paul Hackett 52 to 48 percent.
Many thanks to all The Buzz readers who helped keep all of us on breaking news side of this.
And thanks to everyone who kept reading late tonight as well.
The Channel 9 affiliate has called also called the race for Schmidt.
[ 08/02/2005 11:05 PM ]
From on the Ground
Buzz reader Yaron observes:
The 12% of the precincts left are in Clermont County. My home as well as Jean Schmidt’s. They are counting by hand because of the humidity. The machines cannot handle putting the ballots through.
And Buzz reader Matt seconds this tip, noting:
Fox 19 just reported that the Hackett camp is claiming that there have been Voting Irregularities in Clermont County. IN about 91 precincts they have to hand count the ballots because of the humidity here.
[ 08/02/2005 10:41 PM ]
Getting Closer...
It’s just about even right now. Schmidt technically has the lead in the latest returns, but it’s within the margin of error:
662 precincts of 753 reporting
JEAN SCHMIDT 49,681 50%
PAUL HACKETT 48,811 50%
At this rate, don’t be surprised if the race is not over tomorrow.
The good news is that several sources are reporting to The Buzz that the final county to be counted will be Schmidt's.
[ 08/02/2005 10:08 PM ]
Right Turn Ahead
They don’t call it a swing state for nothing. Schmidt has jumped into the lead, 52 to 48 percent, with 580 of 753 precincts reporting:
JEAN SCHMIDT 45,134 52%
PAUL HACKETT 42,342 48%
[ 08/02/2005 09:36 PM ]
Too Close for Comfort
Is it officially time to be worried? With nearly half the precincts reporting (305 out of 753), Hackett still leads Schmidt 51 to 49 percent.
[ 08/02/2005 09:16 PM ]
First Round Goes To Hackett
The first precincts reports are in and Democrat Paul Hackett is leading Jean Schmidt 51 to 49 percent. Granted, that’s only 56 of 753 precincts in the district. Also worth noting, John Kerry was “ahead” the first couple hours of returns in Ohio during the 2004 elections. We’ll have to wait and see how the next round plays out
[ 08/02/2005 08:41 PM ]
Live Results From Ohio
Live results from Ohio’s election can be found here.
[ 08/02/2005 08:19 PM ]
Size Matters?
The Washington Postplays tonight’s race between Republican Jean Schmidt and Republican Paul Hackett as one that could shape the 2006 mid-term elections:
While a Hackett victory still seemed unlikely, political observers said a strong showing by the Democrat would send a powerful message to Republicans gearing up for 2006.
"If he does well, even if he loses, that could indicate that President Bush's foreign policy may not be playing that well in a Republican district," said John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute for Applied Politics at the University of Akron.
But what constitutes doing well? 40-45 percent? President Bush won the district in last year’s presidential election with 64 percent of the vote and Rob Portman pulled in 72 percent.
There are more factors in this race than simply a referendum on President Bush’s Iraq policy. First, Schmidt won what is commonly referred to as a “bitter” primary of 10 Republicans. She may not be pulling in the broad range of support a unified primary would offer. Also, Democrats have infused the race with significant campaign cash, something they have not done in the past. Finally, you have to assume Hackett pulls some electoral weight with his military experience. Would 40 percent really be such a strong showing when considering those circumstances?
[ 08/02/2005 08:16 PM ]
Watching Ohio
The Right Angle Blog is watching Ohio’s 2nd District race tonight.
[ 08/02/2005 08:03 PM ]
Strange Days
Buzz reader Paul writes in with more thoughts on Mitt Romney’s success in Massachusetts:
I am a big fan of Mitt and live in MA. We have had GOP governors for quite some time for different reasons. One of the major ones is the quality of the GOP candidates. But Weld only beat Silber because Silber lost it in an interview right before the election. Weld is a likable and capable man. Celluci took over for the popular Weld. Neither Weld or Celluci are exactly anything close to conservative. Mitt won, in part, because his opponent was an establishment candidate that was very unlikable and did not handle pressure very well. She was kind of shrewish. It was a surprise the large margin Mitt won by, it was not predicted. The local side is just pathetic though, no one seems to pay attention, they just vote Dem. And then the MA legislature pokes the voters in the eye again and again, and nothing changes. It is a strange place.
[ 08/02/2005 04:55 PM ]
Depends On How You Ask
Bill Richardson appeared on “Hannity and Colmes” last night where he was asked about pursuing a White House campaign in 2008. Richardson said, “I'm running for reelection. I'm chairman of the Democratic governors.”
Richardson was pressed to answer if he was “thinking” about running and changed his tune, “Well, yes, I'm thinking about it ... but I've made no decision.”
[ 08/02/2005 12:30 PM ]
The Marrs Bar
Some supporters of George Allen are asking him to not attend a campaign event with Virginia delegate Bradley Marrs who “attacked” a gay financial donor. The Richmond-Times Dispatchwrites:
Allen, who is attempting to soften his image as a conservative partisan for a possible presidential run in 2008, said he will participate -- despite concern that a Marrs fund-raising letter "went too far" in spotlighting the sexual orientation of a major contributor to Marrs' opponent.
Allen supports a U.S. Constitutional ban on gay marriage, but has also backed hate-crime legislation. When running for the Senate in 2000, Allen held an unannounced meeting with the Northern Virginia chapter of the Log Cabin Republicans. During the meeting, Allen reportedly “stood by his view” that gays and lesbians should be barred from military service but said sexual orientation would not factor into his hiring of personal staff.
[ 08/02/2005 12:25 PM ]
Stem Support
Bill Frist receives stem cell praise today on the pages of the Los Angeles Times and the Boston Globe. Not exactly the home base of someone courting the favor of conservative voters for 2008. The Globe writes:
For Frist, almost certain to be a candidate for president in 2008, it was a return to his natural medical constituency after a long, strange trip to the heart of the religious right.
[ 08/02/2005 12:05 PM ]
'06 Shooter
The Washington TimesnotesGeorge Allen has been, “traveling the country raising funds for his re-election bid next year -- and quelling speculation about running for president in 2008.”
The article includes some good biographical information on Allen, including the ups and downs of his history running for elected office.
[ 08/02/2005 11:59 AM ]
Just in Time
The Wall Street Journalpraises President Bush for his recess appointment of John Bolton as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations:
Deciding yesterday that it was past time to get on with the serious work of confronting the U.N.'s manifest problems, President Bush used his recess-appointment power to send John Bolton to Turtle Bay. That should be good news for anyone with a good-faith interest in reforming the U.N., now at perhaps the most critical moment in its 60-year history.
[ 08/02/2005 11:45 AM ]
Vetting Romney
Buzz reader and Massachusetts resident Rebekha writes in on the New York Times questioning Mitt Romney’s conservative credentials and why state Democrats supported him in 2002:
Mitt Romney was able to get so many votes in the state of Massachusetts because we are so unevenly balanced in the legislature that putting a Democrat in the gubernatorial seat makes even Democrats nervous. Second, since Mitt was the only person who was consistent in his campaign and represented the values that many of us, even those silly Democrats, hold dear, he was able to win the confidence of more than just the Republican base. When the Democratic party lacks consistency in its vision, and continues to push for the erosion of the most basic of human rights in favor of perversion and deviancy, it should come as no surprise that a Republican becomes governor, even in the most bluest of states. It should be obvious to other Republicans and why any would need to question it makes me question their very purpose for being a member of the party in the first place. Is it for their shared beliefs with the rest of us, or is the GOP just another stepping stone for greater political power?
[ 08/02/2005 11:41 AM ]
Back in a Flash
The Buzz needs to take a brief detour. But I will be back shortly with the rest of your morning update.
[ 08/02/2005 09:34 AM ]
Romney Gets the Times Treatment
In a stunning revelation, the New York Times says Mitt Romney is trying to “accentuate the conservative” parts of his record as he considers a possible 2008 White House campaign. The NYT spends most of the article talking to liberals or liberal Republicans who are critical of Romney for his opposition to gay marriage, pro-life leanings and staked position against stem cell research. All three moves have earned Romney accolades in conservative circles:
But as Mr. Romney tries to appeal to his conservative party, his biggest nemesis may end up being the moderate image he created for himself in getting elected in Massachusetts, possibly the bluest state in America, where only 14 percent of the voters are registered Republicans.
"I think it's a question that people may ask at some point," John Campbell III, a Republican state senator in California, said after Mr. Romney spoke to Orange County Republicans in June. "How did this guy get so many Democrats in Massachusetts to support him?"
[ 08/02/2005 09:33 AM ]
Still Hung Up On That Other Guy
In a separate story, the Indianapolis StarsaysEvan Bayh seems “unruffled” by traveling into Iowa this week, home of another possible 2008 Democrat, Governor Tom Vilsack. State Democrats are welcoming Bayh in Iowa this week, as he attends fundraisers and will hold one public event for Vilsack. However, should Vilsack pursue his own campaign, state activists say the field would narrow. State Democrat Party Chair Gordon Fischer said, “If Gov. Vilsack decides to run for president then, without question, I and many, many other Iowa Democrats will be behind him 10,000 percent.”
[ 08/02/2005 09:21 AM ]
To Bayh and Sell
The Indianapolis Starreports this morning that Indiana Senator Evan Bayh has hired a speech consultant from Beverly Hills. The purchase comes through his PAC, which raised $1.17 million during the first six months of 2005. In addition to the $11,375 Bayh spent on speech consultant Richard Greene, Bayh reported the following PAC expenses:
$52,500 on a polling firm, $51,070 on “fundraising consultants,” and $28,000 on travel and hotel expenses. In total, Bayh has spent about $500,000 of the $1.17 million his PAC has raised so far.
[ 08/02/2005 09:07 AM ]
As Nice As It's Going to Get
The Associated Press looks at Kofi Annan’s welcoming of John Bolton as new U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. On questions of Bolton’s appointment, Annan said:
I think it is the president's prerogative and the president has decided to appoint him through this process. From where I stand we will work with him as the representative of the president and of the government.
Annan said he also welcomes Bolton’s reform agenda but added an international caveat:
I think it is all right for one ambassador to come and push, but an ambassador always has to remember that there are 190 others who will have to be convinced, or a vast majority of them, for action to take place.
[ 08/02/2005 09:00 AM ]
Right Move, Wrong Reason?
New York Republican State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno is criticizingGeorge Pataki for his veto of legislation that would have allowed the so-called “morning after pill” to be sold over the counter without a prescription. Bruno made a “veiled reference” to the fact that New York currently pays the financial costs of abortions for low-income minors:
The bill would have given women more options to prevent pregnancies and, as a result, would have prevented abortions. I was surprised by the governor's reason for a veto, given that under existing law, minors already have access to a far worse alternative than taking a pill to prevent an unwanted pregnancy.
Meanwhile, the pro-abortion Naral Pro-Choice New York began running attack ads against Pataki in Iowa, New Hampshire and New York, where Pataki is expected to begin work on a possible 2008 White House campaign.
[ 08/02/2005 08:45 AM ]
Giuliani Leads for PA GOP
Finally, on the Republican side, 36 percent of respondents in the Strategic Vision poll chose Rudy Giuliani to be the GOP nominee in 2008. John McCain placed second with 24 percent. Bill Frist was third with 8 percent and Mitt Romney fourth, with 5 percent.
Rick Santorum, George Pataki, Newt Gingrich, George Allen and Chuck Hagel all trailed in descending order, with 14 percent undecided.
[ 08/02/2005 08:29 AM ]
Al Gore Finishes Second In 2008 Dem Poll
The Strategic Vision poll also asked respondents their preference for the 2008 White House race. On the Democratic side, 37 percent chose Hillary Clinton. Al Gore came in a surprising second, with 15 percent. John Kerry was third with 13 percent and John Edwards fourth with 7 percent.
Ed Rendell, Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Evan Bayh, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack and Barbara Boxer trailed in descending order. 10 percent of respondents were undecided.
[ 08/02/2005 08:24 AM ]
Father Figure
A new Strategic Vision poll is out showing Bob Casey Jr. leading Rick Santorum in a possible Senate match-up 51 to 40 percent. Santorum has a 50 to 34 percent job approval rating in the same poll.
Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson said, “This race is a paradox, as Senator Santorum has good job approval numbers but trails consistently behind Casey. Some of this may be because voters mistake Casey with his late father.”
Hillary Clinton isn't running for president, but her campaign already has started in New Hampshire.
The draft group Hillary Now! has begun airing TV ads in New Hampshire on behalf of Clinton, even though the group has no direct ties to Clinton’s office or staff. Group president Bob Kunst says his group is “laying the foundation” for a Clinton campaign:
Hillary is the strongest Democrat. She's the most popular woman in the country. The party simply says, “Well, Hillary divisive, Hillary controversial.” We say that is an asset, not a liability. Nobody gets attacked like her, but on the other hand nobody has the support like her.
[ 08/02/2005 08:11 AM ]
August 01, 2005
Half Life
If you haven’t already, please check out NR’s editorial today on Bill Frist and stem cells:
Pity Bill Frist's speechwriter. In preparing the Senate Majority Leader's speech on stem-cell research, this hapless scribe had to figure out a way to make all his boss's contradictory assertions appear as a coherent whole. The speech would have to announce Frist's support for federal funding for research that destroys human embryos taken from fertility clinics. But Frist also wanted to say that he remained pro-life. Frist wanted to talk about all of the conditions that he wanted to place on the funding. But he also wanted to endorse a bill that does not meet those conditions.
[ 08/01/2005 02:07 PM ]
It's Summer, but Flip-Flops are Still Unfashionable
While appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday, National Review’s own Kate O’Beirne explained how Bill Frist’s stem cell shift might affect his 2008 prospects:
The reason why I think it's a particular problem for him is the reservation on the part of conservatives about Bill Frist is that he has no real fixed political views. He doesn't have much of a record. The president's views, 'cause he's majority leader, wind up being his legislative views. People also question his political skills. So I think that the politics of this, the timing of it, stepping all over the headlines of Republican victories this week, the flip-flop on it might serve to reinforce the reservations about Bill Frist as a politician.
[ 08/01/2005 01:04 PM ]
Stuck in the Middle With You
The National Journal’s Hotline writes today on the moves by Hillary Clinton and Bill Frist away from their party’s base. Conventional wisdom has long held that national candidates court their party’s base then move to the center to win a presidential election. But after the 2004 election, that theory seems to have lost credibility. The Hotline finds:
It is a telling point about the politicos and their parties that Clinton's "drive" to the middle is generally hailed as a "smart" political strategy while Frist's stem cell reversal is seen as "principled," a code word for bad politics. While both are taking heat from party activists, it's the Senate Maj. Leader who appears more at risk.
Having spent most of this year joining hands on conservative causes (Schiavo, judges, gun maker liability, etc), Frist has separated on an issue near and dear to the GOP activists. Should stem cell research pass and survive a Bush veto, Frist's support will be a big reason why. And it will leave him open to attacks from those he has done so much to woo. The size of their bets might be different but the stakes are high and both Frist and Clinton are betting that, at least on some issues, a move to the middle is a winner.
[ 08/01/2005 12:49 PM ]
Hillary's Real Problem
In an article titled “Why Hillary Can’t Win” left-leaning Slate takes a look at Hillary Clinton’s “electability problem.” I was surprised and flattered to see author Jacob Weisburg cite my own recent article on Clinton’s political maneuvering as his first example. Of course, his take on my take was a one-word rebuttal, “Wrong!”
Nonetheless, I think Weisburg does a fine job of pointing out that Hillary’s real problem is not being too far left or the wife of Bill:
Plainly put, it's her personality. In her four years in the Senate, Hillary has proven herself to be capable, diligent, formidable, effective, and shrewd. She can make Republican colleagues sound like star-struck teenagers. But she still lacks a key quality that a politician can't achieve through hard work: likability. As hard as she tries, Hillary has little facility for connecting with ordinary folk, for making them feel that she understands, identifies, and is at some level one of them. You may admire and respect her. But it's hard not to find Hillary a bit inhuman. Whatever she may be like in private, her public persona is calculating, clenched, relentless—and a little robotic.
The whole article is informative and worth a read.
[ 08/01/2005 12:28 PM ]
Left Bank
Remember when John Edwards was considered a moderate Democrat Senator from North Carolina? Remember when he supported the war in Iraq and criticized Howard Dean for veering too far left?
Well, now that he’s out of work, Edwards is letting his liberal flag fly freely. The millionaire trial lawyer says he’s opposed to the Supreme Court nomination of John Roberts because Roberts doesn’t appear to favor judicial activism on a level that suits Edwards’ new leftward shift.
Edwards described Roberts as “someone who opposed efforts to remedy discrimination on the basis of sex and race. Someone who opposed measures to protect voting rights.” I’ll settle for describing Edwards as someone divorced from reality.
[ 08/01/2005 12:00 PM ]
Double-Dipping
Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsenwrites that Tom Vilsack’s new Heartland PAC could be bad politics for the primary state in 2008. Vilsack is employing individuals to work on his PAC, largely accepted to be a presidential campaign exploratory vehicle, who also work in state offices that affect the primary process. Yepsen writes:
If there is a tilt, it will have bad consequences for Democrats and the caucuses. For one thing, few other Democratic presidential candidates are going to be willing to dump money, computers and staffers into Iowa's gubernatorial and legislative races in 2006 if they don't think they'll get a fair chance at doing well here in 2008. And why should the country trust a caucus-night voter-tabulation process controlled by a party organization that's really a Vilsack front operation?
[ 08/01/2005 11:52 AM ]
Family Guy
Rick Santorum told ABC’s “This Week” yesterday that he would “love” to debate Hillary Clinton over traditional family values:
I'd love to have a serious debate … I believe her view is one that says “government” and “top-down.” I believe my view is the view that's held by most Americans, which means we need strong families and strong communities, and we don't need government really disassembling those institutions, which I think her view of the world does.
“This Week” host and former Bill Clinton adviser George Stephanopolous asked Santorum if he believes Clinton is a “radical feminist.” Santorum answered:
Yes, I do. Read her work and what she's done on children's rights: I mean, that's radical ... that children have rights equal to adults. I mean, that is not a nurturing atmosphere of mothers and fathers taking responsibility for shaping the moral vision of their children. She doesn't agree with that, at least if you look at her earlier writings.
[ 08/01/2005 11:46 AM ]
In Good Company
You’ll be hearing a lot of criticism from the left today on John Bolton’s recess appointment as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. A few statistics worth noting:
During his two terms, Bill Clinton had 140 recess appointments, including former Commerce Secretary Mickey Kantor.
Former President Bush made 77 recess appointments during his one term.
Ronald Reagan made 243 recess appointments during his two terms.
Jimmy Carter made 68 recess appointments during his term in office.
In October, 1961 John F. Kennedy appointed Thurgood Marshall to the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
President Dwight Eisenhower made three recess appointments to the Supreme Court, including Chief Justice Earl Warren, and associate justices William Brennan and Potter Stewart. All three eventually received full Senate confirmation.
[ 08/01/2005 11:22 AM ]
They're Cell-ing, Who's Buying?
USA Today has an interesting look at how Bill Frist’s split with the White House on stem cell research will affect his 2008 standing and 2006 congressional elections. Social conservatives like House Republican Mike Pence hope a stem cell bill and a Bush veto will help energize voters:
This will result in millions of Americans realizing we have a Republican majority in Congress but we don't have a pro-life majority in Congress.
[ 08/01/2005 10:57 AM ]
On His Way
And from John Bolton himself during this morning’s announcement:
We seek a stronger, more effective organization, true to the ideals of its founders and agile enough to act in the 21st century. It will be a distinct privilege to be an advocate for America's values and interests at the U.N., and, in the words of the U.N. Charter, to help maintain international peace and security.
[ 08/01/2005 10:46 AM ]
Finally - John Bolton Heads to U.N.
From President Bush’s remarks announcing John Bolton as the new U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations:
America has now gone more than six months without a permanent ambassador to the United Nations. This post is too important to leave vacant any longer, especially during a war and a vital debate about U.N. reform. So today I've used my constitutional authority to appoint John Bolton to serve as America's Ambassador to the United Nations. John Bolton will be an important member of my State Department team, led by Condoleezza Rice.
I'm sending Ambassador Bolton to New York with my complete confidence. Ambassador Bolton believes passionately in the goals of the United Nations Charter, to advance peace and liberty and human rights. His mission is now to help the U.N. reform itself to renew its founding promises for the 21st century. He will speak for me on critical issues facing the international community. And he'll make it clear that America values the potential of the United Nations to be a source of hope and dignity and peace.
[ 08/01/2005 10:44 AM ]
Matter of Opinion
The Boston Globereports the “Republican wing of the Republican Party” in Massachusetts finds Mitt Romney “not trustworthy,” and “too opportunistic to be trusted.”
However, Globe reporter Scott Allen cannot find anyone on record or even on background to make such statements directly to the paper. He has a number of conservative sources speaking to their issues on the record, but no one that will comment on Romney directly? Are state conservatives really antagonistic towards Romney or is this just what Allen and the Globe want you to believe?
[ 08/01/2005 10:39 AM ]
How I Spent My Summer Recess
Starting tomorrow, Senator Evan Bayh begins a three-day tour of Iowa.
[ 08/01/2005 10:28 AM ]
Pataki Shows Signs of Life
The New York TimesreportsGeorge Pataki will veto a bill that would make the so-called “morning after pill” available to New Yorkers without a prescription. Pataki aides specifically pointed to a flaw in the bill that would allow the drug to be purchased by minors. Of course, it’s New York. So, no reason to believe this “flaw” was anything but intentional. The NYT make a natural comparison to Mitt Romney’s veto of similar legislation in Massachusetts and finds of Pataki’s move:
Mr. Pataki's decision comes as he lays the groundwork for a presidential run in 2008 and underscores the forces he must negotiate as he steps onto the national stage.
Mr. Pataki's position as a longtime supporter of abortion rights has enabled him to survive in heavily Democratic New York for three terms. Had he signed the bill, he would have angered national conservatives, who are adamantly opposed to the emergency contraception and whose support he will need.
[ 08/01/2005 10:03 AM ]
A Brief History Lesson
Almost no one knows more about American politics than Michael Barone. And I’m honored to report Mr. Barone wrote in to The Buzz to give us all some good history on politicians like Joe Biden who have been elected to the U.S. Senate before turning 30:
Rush Holt, Sr., of West Virginia, was elected to the Senate in November 1934 at age 29. He was not allowed to take his seat until June 1935, when he turned 30. His son, Rush Holt, Jr., is currently the Congressman from the 12th district of New Jersey.
Henry Clay, born April 12, 1777, was, according to the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress 1789-1989, "elected to the United States Senate to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of John Adair and served from November 19, 1806, to March 3, 1807, despite being younger than the constitutional age limit of thirty years." Clay's biographer Robert Remini, in the excerpt I checked, gives no reason why Clay was seated despite his age.
You might ask, why are there age limits in the Constitution at all? Why didn't the Framers trust the legislatures (who elected senators) or the voters (who elected representatives) to choose anyone of any age?
I have been doing some research in 17th century English politics and think I have the answer. In the 17th century large landowners and other powerful figures regularly elected their sons or dependents to the House of Commons through "rotten boroughs," which had as few as 4 voters. There was no age limit. Some MPs were under 21 and one, as I recall, was 14--and they were seated. Perhaps the Framers wanted to prevent powerful local notables from electing their children to Congress.
[ 08/01/2005 09:50 AM ]
Complicated
Los Angeles Times’ Ron Brownsteinwrites that the alliance between Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Leadership Council will be a complicated one. The DLC has never been shy about confronting the liberal wing that keeps the Democratic Party out of the mainstream. But Clinton will be courting those same supporters for money and votes as her campaign progresses:
More difficult than outright disagreements will be the systemic divergence of interest between an activist group and a practicing politician. Across the range of issues, Clinton has more need than the DLC to find ideas that minimize fraternal conflict, even if that dulls their edge. It's hard to imagine Clinton putting her name on a report that urges the restructuring of Social Security and Medicare, as DLC studies did in the late 1990s.
[ 08/01/2005 09:38 AM ]
It's Monday and He's Not Running
Rick Santorum told ABC’s “This Week” he’s not running for the White House in 2008, “No, I'm not going to be running. That's what I've said, and I've said it. I have no intention of running, which means I'm not going to run.”
Stay tuned next week, when Santorum will undoubtedly get tongues wagging by saying something that implies he might run.
[ 08/01/2005 09:19 AM ]
What Happens After the Bolton Appointment?
Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd told “Fox News Sunday” he’s against President Bush making a recess appointment of John Bolton to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations:
He's damaged goods. This is a person who lacks credibility. This would be the first U.N. ambassador since 1948 we've ever sent there under a recess appointment. That's not what you want to send up, a person that doesn't have the confidence of the Congress.
The funny thing about Dodd is that he’s wrong. It certainly is not President Bush’s preference to make a recess appointment of Bolton. He wants and deserves an up-or-down vote. But once Bolton has been sent to the United Nations, people will see he carries the president’s agenda. When January, 2007 rolls around it will be interesting to touch base with those same Senators who made such dire predictions of international fallout.
[ 08/01/2005 09:08 AM ]
Cell Count
The Associated Press reports that even with Bill Frist’s endorsement, the Senate does not have the 67 votes necessary to override a presidential veto on expanded funding for stem cell research.
Arlen Specter told CBS’s “Face the Nation” yesterday that the Senate currently has 62 voters with “about 15 more people who are thinking it over.”
